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With QE Near Dead, It’s More And More Pretzel Time
There is a growing body of public work that suggests Federal Reserve officials are prepared now for a very different sort of normalization than what had been envisioned up until this year. That comes,...
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Who Carries The Burden of Proof?
The idea that interest rates have nowhere to go but up is very much like saying the bond market has it all wrong. That is one reason why the rhetoric has been ratcheted that much higher of late,...
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Broken Employment
For the third consecutive month real average weekly earnings fell year-over-year. In March, at least, with the CPI starting its downward leg the decline was by the smallest amount; essentially flat but...
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Less Than Nothing
As I so often write, we still talk about 2008 because we aren’t yet done with 2008. It doesn’t seem possible to be stuck in a time warp of such immense proportions, but such are the mistakes of the...
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The Bond Market Does, In Fact, Use The Correct Start Date
First Bernanke, now Yellen. As I wrote earlier today, there is a growing tendency to revise economic history at least as it applies to official actions. Ben Bernanke defends QE from the perspective of...
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Who Carries The Burden of Proof?
The idea that interest rates have nowhere to go but up is very much like saying the bond market has it all wrong. That is one reason why the rhetoric has been ratcheted that much higher of late,...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Broken Employment
For the third consecutive month real average weekly earnings fell year-over-year. In March, at least, with the CPI starting its downward leg the decline was by the smallest amount; essentially flat but...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Less Than Nothing
As I so often write, we still talk about 2008 because we aren’t yet done with 2008. It doesn’t seem possible to be stuck in a time warp of such immense proportions, but such are the mistakes of the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Bond Market Does, In Fact, Use The Correct Start Date
First Bernanke, now Yellen. As I wrote earlier today, there is a growing tendency to revise economic history at least as it applies to official actions. Ben Bernanke defends QE from the perspective of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Much More Than Rate Cuts On (Dis)Inflation
Things have changed, obviously. Chairman Powell and the rest of the FOMC, the majority anyway, have come around to rate cuts. Where they were hawkish in December, noncommittal as late as May, they’ve...
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The FOMC Channels China’s Xi As To Japan Going Global
The massive dollar eruption in the middle of 2014 altered everything. We’ve talked quite a lot about what Euro$ #3 did to China; it sent that economy into a dive from which it wouldn’t escape. And in...
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The Booming Depression
It is the inversion of the seventies. Four now five decades ago, the economy was caught in the grips of an inflationary condition it seemed unable to escape. It just went on and on, and while it was...
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Inflation, But Only At The Morgue
Why is everyone so angry? How can socialism possibly be on such a rise, particularly among younger people around the world? Why are Americans suddenly dying off? According to one study, two-thirds of...
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Failing Math
When it’s all over with, I think we’re going to find out we’ve all been unnecessarily harmed by two stochastic models. And in the greatest tragic irony of them all, it was entirely predictable. These...
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The Two Easiest Dots Anyone Will Ever Have To Connect
Toward the end of March 2012, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was busy with so many things. It wasn’t supposed to have been that way, not after two “massive” QE’s launched in the wake of...
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Eurodollar Accounting
One step forward, two steps back. Implicit in the Fed’s big strategy reviewed unveiled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell at the end of August was an admission that policymakers had screwed up. No...
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Yes, Curves Have Been Forced To Speak Japanese
Economists’ R*, or R-star, is a fiction. It’s one that they came up with after-the-fact to try to explain why their policies didn’t actually work the way policymakers had initially promised. While in...
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Setting Up To Repeat The Policy-Error Error
The way it was told, the US and worldwide economy in 2017 and for most of 2018 was absolutely on fire. Booming. They even came up with a name for it, calling the period “globally synchronized growth.”...
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